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CPIFA Exclusive Interview with Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: We Are at Likely on the Brink of Seismic Shifts
2025-05-07
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Recently, Mr. Ray Dalio, renowned investor and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, was exclusively interviewed by the WeChat public account editorial board of the Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA). Mr. Ray Dalio shared his latest views on world order, reshaping of world landscape, Global South and AI.
The details of the interview are as follows:
CPIFA Editor: You have stated that “the five big forces driving current circumstances are: 1) the breakdown of the monetary order, 2) internal political disorder, 3) the restructuring of the geopolitical order, 4) acts of nature, and 5) technological revolution.” Do you believe we are now at a critical juncture where all five forces are converging simultaneously?
Ray Dalio: Yes. But because I don't like to have unsubstantiated opinions I like to measure cause:effect relationships and use those measurements to see how things work and are likely to work in the future. My measurements of these five forces show that they are all at critical junctures, the first four are worsening and the fifth - technology - will have huge impacts that will probably be both very good and very bad, and all of these forces are converging which will probably lead to very big disruptions. Any one or two of these big forces making big changes creates big disruptions so, by my measures, with all five in big shifts, we are at likely on the brink of seismic shifts. In fact, it appears that we have begun them and are feeling them. How these situations are handled will have huge impacts in how events transpire.
CPIFA Editor: Given this landscape, what would be your most urgent advice to China, the United States, and other major global powers?
Ray Dalio: My advice to China, the United States and other major global powers is to focus on 1) understanding the mechanics of what is now happening by studying the mechanics of how these forces have repeatedly transpired throughout history and 2) treat what is now happening as a shared problem to be solved as a joint exercise to try to produce a win-win outcome. Work together, probably via track 1.5 dialogues, to try to agree on the ground rules for handling the worst possible situations - like military war and economic collapse, because staring at these terrible possibilities and planning for them would make these terrible possibilities less likely and less terrible when well planned for.
An understanding and fear of the problems and cooperation to solve them is the only possibly successful path forward. If that doesn’t work, preparing for the worst case scenarios is best.
CPIFA Editor: How can humanity to achieve the "most rational reshaping" of the world’s economic and political landscape?
Ray Dalio: Rational decision shaping requires rational people in positions of power. One can't change people's natures, though one can appeal to them in better and worse ways to get the desired outcomes. So understanding leader’s motivations and helping them approach the circumstances less emotionally and more rationally can help. Also, to the extent that countries can send rational people to meet each other to problem solve together and to the extent leaders listen to what they say, that is good.
CPIFA Editor: In your recent articles, you argued that we’re in a classic big cycle shift where tariffs are just a symptom and “I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.” How long do you anticipate this "big cycle shift" or possible “something worse than a recession”? What are the potential endgames, and which outcome do you view as most desirable? How should we avoid the bad situation?
Ray Dalio: As with most changes in orders such as changes in monetary orders, domestic political orders, and international geopolitical orders, it is difficult to say exactly when they will occur (though, like with any disease, there are clear signs of them intensifying, they typically evolve gradually and they are typically manifest intense conflict for about three years, that are followed by extended bad periods that typically last about 10-15 years.). I would guess that the most difficult time will come three to five years from now, but that is just a guess based on imprecise indicators. We should try to avoid the bad situation by making sure the decision making parties know what past analogous bad situations were like and imagining what the modern day versions of these would be like. I believe that knowledge, logic, and fear together is the best mix of influences to prevent very bad situations.
CPIFA Editor: Over the years, you have consistently shared profound insights on global shifts and actively bridged U.S.-China relations. You’ve stressed that "It is a reality that many Americans and Chinese are intertwined, and that separating them would be terrible for just about everyone. Besides the direct functional synergies of producing things together that benefit Americans, Chinese, and the rest of the world, these connections produce mutual understandings and mutual influences that promote peace and progress globally." What compels you to voice these ideas so boldly? Is your goal to create immediate positive change in today’s world, or to leave behind an enduring intellectual legacy for future generations?
Ray Dalio: My goal is to help create positive change. More precisely my goals are to have good relationships with people I care about, to help non-partisan mutual understandings, to help produce good outcomes and prevent bad ones, and to pass along what I have learned over many years as honestly and accurately as possible - much like an experienced doctor would do.
CPIFA Editor: How do you view the concept of the “Global South”? What role should these nations play in the “big cycle shifts” you describe, and where do you see the position of “Global South” countries in the emerging world order?
Ray Dalio: I view the “global south” to be a collection of very different, generally poor, countries where the majority of the world’s population is. Regarding what these nations and the nations of the “global north” “should” do is not for me to say because it is up to each nation to have its own values and weigh things to decide what it should do by approaching decision making in its own way, based on how its government’s decision making hierarchy works. However I personally believe that a world order in which there is broad-based productivity, peace, prosperity and protection of the environment is best.
CPIFA Editor: You consider AI as the greatest industrial revolution in human history. So in your mind, what "framework of trust" should China and the U.S. establish to ensure AI’s development and deployment remains beneficial, safe, and equitable? Are you optimistic about U.S.-China collaboration in this field? Do you believe AI could ultimately threaten or even displace humanity?
Ray Dalio: I am pessimistic about U.S.- China collaborations in this field because there is a lack of trust and fear of different types of war that won’t go away soon, and AI is a very powerful tool for war as well as a very powerful tool to produce better lives.
